“1. ‘The only certainty is that there is no certainty… With uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. Corporate undulation is uncertain; roulette is risky…’ There is no single number which can be used to predict the future price of an investment because the future is not only risky (like roulette) but uncertain (unknown unknowns). There are known future states for which probability is unknown and future states that are unknown for which probability is not computable.”
http://25iq.com/2013/07/11/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-michael-mauboussin-about-investing/
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