“No government agency ever projects deep, long-lasting recessions, because such a period of stagnation would upend all the rosy projections that the status quo is eternally sustainable and stable. Where does all this lead us? To this: Programs that backstop banks and social insurance systems like Medicare are not like fire or life insurance because they are effectively open-ended in terms of costs and in exposure to risk. A system which pools risk without distributing it to the participants and eliminates the causal connection between risk and consequence introduces moral hazard on a grand scale.”

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-source-of-systemic-crisis-risk-and.html

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