“What made the Canadian recession easy to spot was the Canadian yield curve inverted out to three years following a surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada on January 21.  It remains to be seen if the US follows. The US contracted in the first quarter, but the second quarter rebound was a bit stronger than I expected.  I awarded Canada the ‘Blue Ribbon’ for the first yield curve inversion of any major country following the great financial crisis. I smell an ‘Operation Twist‘ type move by the Canadian central bank to rectify this horrific ‘recession-signaling’ condition.  If so, the sweet spot for banks and hedge funds to front-run the trade appears to be 5Y or 7Y notes.  Some banks may already be in on it.”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/bank-of-canada-admits-recession-shades.html

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