“1. ‘The only certainty is that there is no certainty… With uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. Corporate undulation is uncertain; roulette is risky…’ There is no single number which can be used to predict the future price of an investment because the future is not only risky (like roulette) but uncertain (unknown unknowns). There are known future states for which probability is unknown and future states that are unknown for which probability is not computable.”
http://25iq.com/2013/07/11/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-michael-mauboussin-about-investing/
Related posts:
BEARCAT Bread And Circuses, Or Why I Ripped Up My Ticket
Iraq’s pain has only intensified since 2003
Burn your Obamacare card
An Inflection Point for US Global Hegemony?
Jeffrey Tucker: Catastrophic Plans
Uber vs. the State, 1851 Edition
Living the Lockdown Life
James Altucher: Why I Won’t Vote
Rising Inequality and Poverty: Can They Be Fixed?
Why Does Monsanto Always Win?
Cody Willard: Game plan for a completely corrupted market
Jeffrey Tucker: An Empire in Panic
Beyond the Debt-Ceiling Debate
Stefan Molyneux: The Truth About Obamacare
Is the National Security Agency behind Bitcoin?