“The fact is that the most reliable valuation measures we identify are generally within just 15-20% of their 2000 extremes, and are already at or beyond levels observed in 1929, 1972, and 2007. Of course, that same advance to extreme overvaluation is also what has raised the total return of the S&P 500 from 2000 until today up to about 3.9% annually. We believe that even that total return is transitory, and presently estimate negative total returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon less than 8 years. We encourage buy-and-hold investors to understand and mentally prepare for the potential depth of interim losses inherent in that strategy (we would presently allow 40-55%).”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140915.htm

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