Monthly Archives: January 2016

Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles

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“Bank of America says OPEC is now ‘effectively dissolved’. The cartel might as well shut down its offices in Vienna to save money.  OPEC now faces a permanent headwind. Each rise in price will be capped by a surge in US output. The only constraint is the scale of US reserves that can be extracted at mid-cost, and these may be bigger than originally supposed, not to mention the parallel possibilities in Argentina and Australia, or the possibility for ‘clean fracking’ in China as plasma pulse technology cuts water needs. Saudi Arabia is effectively beached. It relies on oil for 90pc of its budget revenues. There is no other industry to speak of, a full fifty years after the oil bonanza began.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html

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Saudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’: hedge funds

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“Hedge funds and private equity groups armed with $60bn of ready cash are poised to snap up the assets of bankrupt US shale drillers, almost guaranteeing that America’s tight oil production will rebound as soon as prices start to recover.  Mr Yergin said groups with deep pockets such as Blackstone and Carlyle will take over the infrastructure when the distressed assets are cheap enough, and bide their time until the oil cycle turns. Many shale bonds are trading at distress level below 50 cents on the dollar, even for mid-risk companies. Banks are being careful not to push them into receivership but they themselves are under pressure.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12118594/Saudis-will-not-destroy-the-US-shale-industry.html

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Some Bankrupt Oil and Gas Drillers Can’t Give Their Assets Away

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“Winners and losers are emerging from the energy bust. What’s a meal for Clark is indigestion for banks that financed the boom using oil and gas properties as collateral. The four biggest U.S. banks — Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. — have set aside at least $2.5 billion combined to cover souring energy loans and have said they’ll add to that if prices stay low.  There’s plenty to keep Clark bargain-hunting. Last year, 42 U.S. energy companies went bankrupt, owing more than $17 billion, according to a report from law firm Haynes & Boone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/some-bankrupt-oil-and-gas-drillers-can-t-give-their-assets-away

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Saudi Arabia budget 2016: domestic and regional effects

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“This new economic forecast presents big challenges to Saudi Arabia’s standing regionally. Its sponsorship of rebel groups in Syria and its military adventurism in Yemen have seen massive increases in its military budget, which has risen by 19 percent a year since 2011. The conflict in Yemen has moved from a rapid response by the Gulf States to a protracted conflict that seems like there is no political or military solution in sight. As Saudi Arabia becomes further bogged down in the conflict, the economic and social costs will likely increase, placing more pressure on the House of Al-Saud.”

http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/01/saudi-arabia-budget-2016-domestic-and-regional-effects/

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Short skirts, flashy cars, no burkas: Before Afghanistan plunged into hell

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“The idyllic images were captured in 1967, when the teacher teemed up with Unesco to work in the Higher Teachers College of Kabul.  As well as building a relationship with the Afghans he encountered, the amateur photographer set out to document their way of life.  Serene images include men relaxing outside with a picnic, boys playing in the Kabul river in the sun and girls smiling during lessons.  Others show colourful marketplaces, gardens alive with colourful flowers and even a giggling boy decorating cakes.  While many feature happy Afghans, there are many of the Podlich family peacefully enjoying their time living in the country.”

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3404803/Life-Taliban-Fascinating-photographs-idyllic-Afghanistan-1960s-residents-free-enjoy-outdoor-picnics-colourful-markets.html

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41% of Trump Voters, 19% of Democrats Want to Bomb ‘Aladdin’ Country

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“41% of his voters think Japanese internment was a good thing, to 37% who don’t. And 41% of his supporters would favor bombing Agrabah to only 9% who are opposed to doing that. Agrabah is the country from Aladdin. Overall 30% of Republican primary voters say they support bombing it to 13% who are opposed. We asked the same question of Democrats, and 36% of them opposed bombing Agrabah to 19% in support.”

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-leads-grows-nationally-41-of-his-voters-want-to-bomb-country-from-aladdin-clinton-maintains-bi.html

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North Korea Is Newest Frontier for a Daredevil Investor

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“The risks of sinking cash — even just $7 million or so of Firebird’s $700 million in assets — into a neo-Stalinist state with labor camps and virtually no private property are obvious. The geopolitical volatility was on full display last week, as North Korea claimed that it had tested a hydrogen bomb. And Mr. Passin is treading on murky investment territory, given the American sanctions against the country.  His investors have experienced the wild rides that come with such frontier markets. Two of his funds are being liquidated after deep losses, including on banking in Iraq, gold in Armenia and oil and gas in Kenya.  But Mr. Passin isn’t deterred. ‘I see opportunities when other people are afraid,’ he said.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/business/dealbook/north-korea-is-newest-frontier-for-a-daredevil-investor.html?ref=dealbook&_r=2

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Jacob Hornberger: The Pentagon’s B-52 Message to North Koreans

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“Given that the U.S. military had just a few years before dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, why would they have any compunctions about bombing North Koreans with napalm and fleas with bubonic plague? Don’t forget, after all, the mindset of the U.S. national-security state during the Cold War — the ‘war’ that was used to justify converting the federal government into a national-security state. The Cold War national-security state mindset was: A commie is a commie and a gook is gook; no big deal to send any and all of them to the hereafter.  The Korean civil war was no more the business of the U.S. national-security state than Vietnam’s civil war was.”

http://fff.org/2016/01/15/the-pentagons-b-52-message-to-north-koreans/

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US drowning in blood of innocents as civilian casualties deemed acceptable

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“Evidence for this comes on the back of the recent airstrike carried out by US jets over Mosul, targeting an ISIS facility allegedly containing a huge amount of cash intended to pay its fighters and finance future military operations. Imagine if a Russian military commander made a statement such as this, openly acknowledging that civilians would be killed in future Russian airstrikes. The uproar across Western media platforms would be off the scale. There would likely even be attempts to convene an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in order to censure the Russian government, along with a concerted attempt to isolate Moscow and reduce it to pariah status.”

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/328781-us-civilians-syria-war/

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Navy Uses US Citizens as Pawns in Domestic War Games

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“Beginning in mid-January, Navy SEALs will be practicing unannounced and clandestine combat beach landings across Washington State’s Puget Sound and many other coastal areas of that state. Navy SEALs carrying ‘simulated’ weapons may also travel across public and private property within city limits, and may swim through public and private marinas occupied by people living on boats. They could conduct war game patrols on roads through residential communities. In addition to tribal, state, federal and county lands, there are many properties on the Navy’s list of training sites marked as private.”

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34367-exclusive-navy-uses-us-citizens-as-pawns-in-domestic-war-games

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