“Instead of over-the-top responses by weak leaders, such as George W. Bush or Francois Hollande, we need strong and effective leaders to withstand the pressure for excessive and thus counterproductive responses—exactly what the terrorists want. After 9/11, the United States has needlessly attacked or invaded at least seven Muslim countries and only made the terrorism problem worse. Presidents Bush and Obama have told the world that these military actions are not a ‘war on Islam’; unfortunately, to those at the other end of the gun barrel, it doesn’t look that way.”
Category Archives: Essays
John Hussman: The Bubble Right In Front Of Our Faces

“Following the steep but relatively contained market plunge in August, the major indices rebounded toward their May highs, but neither the broad market nor high-yield credit participated meaningfully. Only 34% of individual stocks remain above their respective 200-day averages, widening credit spreads suggest growing concerns about low-quality debt defaults, and sectoral divergences (e.g. relative weakness in shipping vs. production) confirm what we observe in leading economic data — a buildup of inventories and a shortfall in new orders and order backlogs.”
Those “Inexplicable” Paris Attacks

“We need to remind them why they need US!”
“Today’s horrific attacks in Paris have moved us all, and the more we learn, the more our hearts ache,” said Governor Cuomo. “These were cowardly acts of evil by people who have inexplicably chosen to believe in radical hatred above all else.”
‘Inexplicable’; perhaps, for the pathologically dense.
One possible explanation comes in the form of a drone assassination in Syria performed a matter of a mere few hours before the Paris attacks, which British intelligence openly admitted would be expected to provoke blowback.
One interested in these elusive things called “facts” could also refer to ISIS’ own (alleged) statement on the Paris attacks:
Let France and all nations following its path know that they will continue to be at the top of the target list for the Islamic State and that the scent of death will not leave their nostrils as long as they partake in the crusader campaign, as long as they dare to curse our Prophet (blessings and peace be upon him), and as long as they boast about their war against Islam in France and their strikes against Muslims in the lands of the Caliphate with their jets, which were of no avail to them in the filthy streets and alleys of Paris. Indeed, this is just the beginning. It is also a warning for any who wish to take heed.
France? That effete land of art, fashion, and cheese?
As it happens, France, since electing the peacenik socialist François Hollande, has also reinvented itself as a land of bellicose military campaigns in North Africa and the Middle East.
It’s not as if they should be surprised. After all, if the Paris bombings were a reaction motivated by French foreign military adventures, we have seen this before. From the article:
This isn’t the first time France’s involvement abroad has led to terrorism at home. In 1995, Algerian Islamists set off eight bombing attacks that killed eight people and wounded 200 in Paris to punish France for supporting the government in that country’s civil war.
Hollande, for his part, sprung into action, declaring a state of emergency, a military-backed curfew in Paris, the closure of national borders, and closing schools, museums, libraries, pools, and food markets. Hollande swore to be “merciless” in response, as if this would somehow reflect a change in policy from France’s existing bombing campaigns.
Truth be told, Hollande badly needed such an event. His approval rating was hovering around 20% most recently, having made the dubious achievement of becoming even less popular than his predecessor. The last time Paris was attacked by Islamists, coincidentally also having identified French military campaigns as their motivation, Hollande’s performance earned him a temporary respite in his otherwise rock-bottom evaluation by French voters. Terrorist attacks, while regrettable, are capable of catalyzing the recalcitrant French to ‘rally around the rooster’, and thus they have a certain kind of value to the ruling class.
Immediately responding to the Paris bombings was that other prominent European head of state, David Cameron, who had characterized the day’s earlier drone assassination in Syria as an “act of self-defence”. Cameron wasted no time in mobilizing “police and security agencies”, maintaining the existing “severe” terror threat level, and warning the British people to be “prepared for a number of British casualties.” However, the article admits:
There is, however, said to be no specific intelligence indicating there is a direct terrorist threat to attack Britain. The heightened measures in the UK are partly to reassure the public [..]
Cameron’s haste may be explained in part by observing that he, like Hollande, faces severe headwinds to his re-election in the form of a referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union, supported by his own party. Cameron’s standing among the European elite is threatened by this referendum, which the Dutch, Irish, and German heads of state recently took turns blasting. Cameron is also facing formal legal proceedings over his policy of bypassing a 2013 parliamentary refusal to authorize air strikes, having personally authorized drone strikes in Syria, having refused to explain Britain’s secret “kill list”, and having given tacit approval to earlier illegal airstrikes in Syria.
Explaining the inexplicable: Why Syria?
A truly inexplicable event is the Syrian war, in which the U.S., NATO, and GCC have converged to destabilize a country with no natural resources — save for a meager amount of oil production that would barely supply the Pentagon’s needs for one day — and zero clout on the world stage.
But maybe it doesn’t have as much to do with what Syria has or what it can do, but rather what it is in the way of: two competing state-sponsored natural gas pipeline projects:
Knowing Syria was a critical piece in its energy strategy, Turkey attempted to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to reform this Iranian pipeline and to work with the proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would ultimately satisfy Turkey and the Gulf Arab nations’ quest for dominance over gas supplies, who are the United State’s allies. But after Assad refused Turkey’s proposal, Turkey and its allies became the major architects of Syria’s “civil war.”
‘They hate us for our freedoms’
Mainstream media outlets repeat the comfortable myth that terrorist attacks are primarily motivated by the desire to impose Sharia law in Western countries. While the precise mechanism by which random acts of violence lead to a formal Sharia law regime is yet to be identified, it is perhaps more instructive to examine the statements made by the attackers themselves, which invariably cite not only their religious beliefs, but specific acts of military violence carried out by U.S., NATO, and/or GCC partners in Middle Eastern countries. Two recent examples are the statements following the Charlie Hebdo and November Paris attacks.
But let’s step back to the bigger picture for a moment:
- GCC allies bombed a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Yemen, October 2015
- GCC allies bombed a Yemeni wedding party, killing 131, in September 2015
- GCC allies then bombed another Yemeni wedding party, killing 30, in October 2015
- U.S. forces bombed a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Afghanistan, killing 22, in October 2015
- U.S.-backed Afghan forces hit a wedding party with mortars, killing 17, January 2015
- As of December 2013, U.S. forces had bombed eight wedding parties, killing almost 300 Afghans, Iraqis, and Yemenis, along with funerals and baby-naming ceremonies
- For 2014, the war in Afghanistan killed 3,188 civilians and wounded 6,429, the deadliest on record
- Despite rising casualties, U.S. President Barack Obama has announced that the war in Afghanistan will not end until 2017 at the earliest, October 2015
- Massive protests persist against the U.S. puppet government in Iraq, now in its 11th year, September 2015
- Dozens of Libyans protesting the planned power-sharing agreement to resolve the U.S.-led civil war, a model that failed in Iraq, are victims of an anonymous rocket attack, October 2015
It is not hard to imagine that every one of these attacks that senselessly kills children, friends, and loved ones creates motivation to retaliate among those remaining. ISIS recruiters offer a vision of utopia to a generation of young people that has only known war, poverty, and personal tragedy.
Explaining the inexplicable: How can terrorists be gaining ground versus the most powerful governments in the world?
In Iraq, then Libya, then Egypt, former U.S.-backed authoritarians heading secular governments were deposed one by one. Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi were victims of openly executed military regime change operations, while Hosni Mubarak was the victim of a series of events that led to the present U.S.-backed military dictatorship. The latter was accomplished through an alphabet soup list of NGOs:
Washington’s democracy assistance programme for the Middle East is filtered through a pyramid of agencies within the State Department. Hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars is channeled through the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL), The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), USAID, as well as the Washington-based,quasi-governmental organisation the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
In turn, those groups re-route money to other organisations such as the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and Freedom House, among others. Federal documents show these groups have sent funds to certain organisations in Egypt, mostly run by senior members of anti-Morsi political parties who double as NGO activists.
The Middle East Partnership Initiative – launched by the George W Bush administration in 2002 in a bid to influence politics in the Middle East in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks – has spent close to $900m on democracy projects across the region, a federal grants database shows.
USAID manages about $1.4bn annually in the Middle East, with nearly $390m designated for democracy promotion, according to the Washington-based Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).
The US government doesn’t issue figures on democracy spending per country, but Stephen McInerney, POMED’s executive director, estimated that Washington spent some $65m in 2011 and $25m in 2012. He said he expects a similar amount paid out this year.
A main conduit for channeling the State Department’s democracy funds to Egypt has been the National Endowment for Democracy. Federal documents show NED, which in 2011 was authorised an annual budget of $118m by Congress, funneled at least $120,000 over several years to an exiled Egyptian police officer who has for years incited violence in his native country.
This appears to be in direct contradiction to its Congressional mandate, which clearly states NED is to engage only in “peaceful” political change overseas.
Egypt today remains under the U.S.-funded military dictatorship, which has recently effectively outlawed criticism of the regime.
We know where the military dictatorship gets its money and weapons. Where do terrorists get the money and weapons with which they can become an organized army, occupy territory, and train recruits?
- “Nearly 200,000 U.S.-supplied rifles and pistols meant for Iraqi security forces are unaccounted for in Iraq”, August 2007
- Machine guns and surface-to-air missiles went missing during the U.S.-backed Libyan revolution, September 2011
- The Iranian military obtained surface-to-air missiles amid the chaos, September 2011
- A “large number” of shoulder-fired heat-seeking missiles and 2,000 rifles and ammunition were stolen in Benghazi, Libya, September 2012
- It later came to light that 400 surface-to-air missiles were stolen during the attack, August 2013
- “Massive amounts of highly sensitive U.S. military equipment”, including highly armored vehicles, hundreds of weapons and night-vision goggles, were stolen in Libya, September 2013
- ISIS stole between “millions of dollars” and $400 million from the Iraqi central bank in Mosul, money that had been previously airdropped into Iraq, June 2014
- “ISIS has captured hundreds of US supplied upgraded Humvees, pickup trucks, tanks and armored vehicles, artillery pieces, and even reportedly a number of helicopters, not to mention huge stocks of ammunition and artillery shells” from the U.S.-backed Iraqi army, July 2014
- “Billions of dollars have been taken out of Iraq over the last 10 years illegally”, according to investigators, October 2014
- U.S. airdropped weapons into ISIS territory, allegedly by mistake, October 2014
- ISIS obtained $40 million or more in funding from government and private sources in GCC countries, November 2014
- Afghan central bank employees stole $1.4 million and ran, February 2015
- Pentagon loses track of “more than $500 million in small arms, ammunition, night-vision goggles, patrol boats, vehicles and other supplies” given to the U.S.-backed Yemeni government
- ISIS uses anti-tank rockets, shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles, Western assault rifles, and other equipment stolen from U.S.-backed Iraqi troops, April 2015
- Iraq admits that ISIS captured 2,300 Humvees from its forces in Mosul, June 2015
- Fed and Treasury admit that “the flow of billions of dollars to Iraq’s central bank” was shut off temporarily amid fears it was being funneled to ISIS, November 2015
As for training terrorists to execute large-scale military operations:
- “Syrian rebels who would later join the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIS, were trained in 2012 by U.S. instructors working at a secret base in Jordan”, June 2014
- “Washington and its allies empowered groups whose members had either begun with anti-American or anti-Western views or found themselves lured to those ideas in the process of fighting”, August 2014
- U.S. President Barack Obama announces plan to train fighters that oppose the Syrian government, September 2014
- U.S. $500 million train-and-equip program suffers 75 defections to al-Qaida including equipment, September 2015
- U.S. training helped mold top Islamic State military commander, September 2015
- Pentagon asks for $600 million for 2016 train-and-equip program, October 2015
Inexplicability
The source of motivation for terrorist attacks is apparently not “inexplicable”. The means by which those attacks are carried out also does not seem to be at all “inexplicable”.
What may be the truly “inexplicable” and uncanny part of the process: the ability of Western governments and media to cultivate such mass ignorance that they are able to pretend to be mere victims of purportedly “inexplicable” attacks, thus enabling ever-ongoing seizures of extra-constitutional police and emergency powers that are unlikely to be relinquished voluntarily.
This process is presented as if it were an organic and inevitable progression, in which superhero leaders humbly request ever-greater powers to fight an endless series of increasingly dangerous bad actors. The reality is far from organic.
The Reichstag Fire in Nazi Germany was perhaps the template for this mechanism of permanent ’emergency’ escalations of state power, which has today evolved into a global phenomenon, fueled by ISIS and at the same time fueling ISIS through its reactions.
One could ascribe failures to stop future attacks on power elite ‘interests’ or on civilians to malice, or to incompetence instead, depending on your perspective.
What’s the answer?
Interpret the latest attack as another datapoint indicating failure of the policy, and reverse course. Withdraw from foreign military occupations, renounce illegal emergency powers and secret spying on citizens, convert payments to foreign militaries and governments into aid for war victims including resettlement domestically, and sweep away the hubristic ruling class ideology that enabled this global human rights catastrophe and policy disaster in the first place.
Which course will the U.S. and NATO governments pursue from here? Perhaps a course they could have chosen almost 10 years ago that would certainly not have trained and armed ‘friendly’ terrorists, would certainly have not motivated young people to join terrorist organizations with more anger-inducing tragedies, and would certainly not have deliberately destabilized an entire region of the globe through armchair regime change pursuits.
Unfortunately, all indications are that in response they are pursuing exactly the course that brought us to this point.
Only a madman would repeat the same courses of action and expect differing results. So are Western leaders mad, or are they openly pursuing the same results?
Bruce Schneier: Why are we spending $7 billion per year on TSA?

“The only reason they’ve been able to get away with the scam for so long is that there isn’t much of a threat of terrorism to defend against. Even with all these actual and potential failures, there have been no successful terrorist attacks against airplanes since 9/11. If there were lots of terrorists just waiting for us to let our guard down to destroy American planes, we would have seen attacks — attempted or successful — after all these years of screening failures. No one has hijacked a plane with a knife or a gun since 9/11. Not a single plane has blown up due to terrorism.”
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/05/opinions/schneier-tsa-security/
The Holocaust, the West, and the Lost Caribbean Shelter

“Apathy wasn’t the problem. During a war that pitted the free world against the forces of fascism, nationalism, and racism, the liberal democracies actively pursued illiberal policies at home and sabotaged their citizens’ efforts to save thousands of families from extermination. As Perl bluntly puts it, ‘The Nazis set the house aflame, and the free world barred the doors.’ In a different version of history, one in which compassion and local autonomy had triumphed, a Caribbean haven would have allowed tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of human beings to be alive today, whose parents and grandparents were, in our actual history, lost to Hitler’s Final Solution.”
http://fee.org/anythingpeaceful/the-west-the-holocaust-and-the-lost-caribbean-refuge/
John Hussman: Psychological Whiplash
“Investors who refused to take the speculative bait may have been the first casualties of the Fed’s policies. But now, it is investors who remain fully invested in obscenely overvalued equities and junk credit that have become the unwitting dupes in this game. If the Fed cannot force people to abandon saving behavior with zero interest rates, some members of the FOMC have openly talked about driving interest rates to negative rates to ‘stimulate’ spending. This is not economics, it is megalomaniacal sociopathy. Centuries of economic history warn that this speculative episode, too, will end in a collapse.”
Oligarchies Masquerading as Democracies
“The creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 was the re-establishment of the oligarchs’ lender of last resort. That meant that the federal debt would become the foundation of the entire economy: debt purchased by the central bank to balloon the monetary base. To pay off the debt would create mass deflation and depression. The oligarchs now have immunity. Congress will not order an independent audit of the FED. The model is the Bank of England. It has been the chief insurance agency of the Anglo-American oligarchy ever since 1694. The ‘Glorious Revolution’ of 1688/89 was in fact the symbolic triumph of the oligarchs over the king.”
“Free Trade Has Destroyed American Manufacturing”: False.

“Manufacturing is going the way of agriculture. But we are not getting poorer. This has been true since at least 1840. Free trade in manufactured goods is of marginal overall importance. Free trade in digital services will increase. The government cannot easily tax this kind of international trade. There are no tariffs and quotas on information. But protectionists never mention this aspect of free trade. They are focused on physical production, which is of declining value in our lives. The decline in American manufacturing is not the result of free trade. It is the result of our increasing wealth. We buy services and digits, not space-occupying stuff.”
US Markets Are Running On Borrowed Money, Borrowed Time

US markets face a realignment with reality in the near term. Here are the major recent developments that may have spurred tech company Overstock.com to hold 3 months of food and $10 million of gold in reserve for employees in case of a financial emergency.
S&P profit growth has turned negative.
The dollar has enjoyed record inflows from crashing emerging markets, which have in turn obliterated multinational profit margins.
Big oil companies burned billions in cash during the third quarter.
Companies are spending and borrowing money to buy control rather than to invest in growth.
Mergers and takeovers are at a $1.2 trillion level in 2015, with an average transaction of $10 billion, in the biggest takeover boom since 2008.
Share buybacks are at an all-time high, supported by $58 billion in bond issuance. Yield-starved investors buy 30-year corporate bonds at rates seen on bank deposits just a few years ago.
Carl Icahn compared the current leveraged-buyout binge to companies “taking a drug” to benefit stock market metrics in the short term.
Rebounds in cap-weighted stock indexes are supported by record profits at large tech companies.
Apple reports the biggest annual profit in history — not just its history, but all of history.
Google’s third quarter profits are up 45% after reorganizing as Alphabet.
LinkedIn nearly doubled earnings estimates for the quarter.
The Fed has not delivered the interest rate increase that it telegraphed.
While stock market observers cheer, they continue to assume the truth of the debunked “Fed model”.
Junk bonds have been the primary alternative to yield starvation for years.
The value of junk bonds is completely dependent on the perceived absence of consumer price inflation combined with the ability of bond issuers to maintain top-line revenue and gross profit margins, an increasingly shaky proposition. Junk bonds have now given up all their gains since the bull market began.
Investors continue to pour money into junk bonds, while companies exit junk status not via ratings upgrades, but via bankruptcy.
As of early 2015, oil and gas issuers made up double the proportion of the Moody’s junk bond index that they did in 2009.
IPOs are beginning to fail.
IPOs are not reaching their target prices, and highly anticipated offerings are being delayed or withdrawn.
Negative interest rates have obliterated the “zero lower bound”.
The U.S. sold 3-month Treasury bills at zero interest. Investors are handing their money to the federal government and asking for nothing except that it be returned to them in the future.
$345 billion of Eurozone government debt yielding less than -0.3% has reached the market.
Italy, one of the PIIGS of European debt crisis fame, sold six-month debt at a negative yield. Investors, with the help of the European Central Bank’s “quantitative easing” bond-buying program, are paying the Italian government to take their money.
Sweden has imposed negative interest rates while it pursues the elimination of physical cash, the only escape hatch to avoid negative interest rates.
Governments, facing a loss of control over real exchange rates, are increasingly scrutinizing the use of gold coins as an alternative form of money.
Deep job cuts in energy, construction, finance… and all over the place.
Deutsche Bank lost $6.6 billion and will cut 35,000 jobs.
Credit Suisse is cutting thousands of jobs and asking investors for $6 billion.
Standard Chartered lost $139 million and is cutting 15,000 jobs and asking investors for $5.1 billion in response.
Chevron will burn cash until the end of 2016 and is cutting 6000-7000 jobs.
Caterpillar is laying off 10,000 workers.
Engine maker Cummins is cutting 2,000 jobs.
Manufacturer 3M is cutting 1,500 jobs after earnings missed expectations.
Insiders are exiting US property markets.
Sam Zell, who called the top of the property bubble in 2007 by selling $23 billion worth of office properties to Blackstone, just sold 23,000 apartment units to Starwood for $5.4 billion.
Commercial real estate prices are now 14.5% above their 2007 highs. Cap rates are at record lows, breaking the previous all time record low set in 2007.
Wages are on the rise.
UK wages are rising at the fastest rate since 2009.
US wages are trending upward.
Walmart has set a higher minimum wage for its staff and will spend an additional $1.2 billion doing so.
Consumer price inflation is the wild card. When it arrives, it will erode the real value of corporate earnings in addition to fixed-rate debt instruments.
Consumer price inflation will arrive as a result of rising wages making consumer borrowers more creditworthy, combined with the Fed reducing the 0.25% rate of interest on excess reserves that it has paid since 2008. As of yet, commercial banks can collect these payments as zero-risk corporate welfare in exchange for keeping $2.5 trillion in assets against which they could lend out of service.
Historically speaking, this is probably the last gasp for this bull market cycle.
Conclusion: Hedge like it’s 1999.
A combination of cash and equivalents, straddle tactics with inverse index ETFs and/or options, and crisis investing in markets that have already experienced severe capital outflows is a strategy likely to bear fruit going forward.
The Future Is Unimaginably Better than Expected

“Today’s televisions are far superior to the ones shown in the film. Video calling is cheaper and easier than predicted, with apps like Skype and FaceTime. Virtual reality is not yet mainstream, but it may soon be, and we already have plenty of wearable tech such as Google Glass. We don’t have fax machines in every room because we have a far cheaper, easier and more environmentally friendly alternative in email. Nobody can predict the future, not even sci-fi screenwriters who are paid lots of money to try. [..] Entrepreneurs respond to our wants and needs today, but they also tap into our latent demands — creating amazing new stuff we didn’t even know we wanted.”
http://fee.org/anythingpeaceful/the-future-is-unimaginably-better-than-expected/


