Tag Archives: History Repeating

Deutsche Bank May Be Top Contributor to Systemic Risk, IMF Says

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“Concern over Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank’s financial strength has weighed on the company’s stock and make it the worst-valued global lender.  ‘The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime,’ the IMF said in the report.  Deutsche Bank currently exceeds its capital requirements and is shrinking its balance sheet to comply with regulations as they become stricter.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/deutsche-bank-may-be-top-contributor-to-systemic-risk-imf-says

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John Hussman: Brexit and the Bubble in Search of A Pin

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“Think of the EU, in its current ill-structured form, as a kind of Ponzi scheme, and Britain as the guy who just asked for his money back. There are undoubtedly greater prospects for near-term disruption after last week’s vote, but the hallmark of a Ponzi scheme is the attempt to use progressively greater distortions in order to preserve a structure that is fundamentally unsound and increasingly bankrupt. Of any large country that could leave the EU, Britain was the best first mover. I have no immediate concerns about a domino effect, but if one was to emerge, my view is that the exit of Germany, France, and the Nordic countries would be preferable to the exit of Greece, Italy, Spain, or Portugal.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160627.htm

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The New Subprime Meltdown

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“Now, everyone calls them, ahem, ‘non-prime.’  A few subprime (excuse me — non-prime) mortgage bond offerings started trickling out in recent quarters. But the one that caught everyone’s attention came out earlier this month: 368 mortgages packaged into a bond with a total principal balance of nearly $162 million.  Many of the senior executives who led those companies are back in today’s non-prime ball game, too — once again aiming to capitalize on today’s Fed-induced low mortgage rates and re-inflated housing bubble.”

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/us-economy/new-subprime-meltdown/

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John Hussman: Over-Adaptation and Market Drawdowns

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“The worst market losses across history have been associated with relatively low short-term interest rates during the collapse and the absence of any material hike in interest rates at all as the collapse unfolds. Investors have convinced themselves to tolerate historic valuation extremes, confident that stocks can’t fall unless interest rates rise. They’ve walked right into this setup because they don’t recognize it, and neither central bankers nor the investment profession appear interested in admitting the increasingly pressing risks that they themselves have been complicit in creating.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160606.htm

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John Hussman: The Coming Fed-Induced Pension Bust

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“What’s quite unfortunate, in my view, is that the strong realized past returns of the past 25 years are now actually being taken as a justification of current, unrealistically high pension return assumptions. This, in turn, encourages continued underfunding. This inclination appears to be wholly encouraged by Federal Reserve policies, and threatens to amplify an inevitable pension crisis in the coming years. The realized past returns of this period have been strong precisely because they have robbed from future expected returns. The tide will turn, as it always has in complete market cycles across history, and as investors discovered during the market collapses of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160523.htm

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John Hussman: Bearishness Is Strictly For Informed Optimists

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“When the primary use of fiscal policy is to wipe up the catastrophe of weak productivity, lost income, unemployment, and malinvestment created in the repeated aftermath of collapsed financial bubbles, the endgame is going to be stagnant living standards and a debased currency.  Ultimately, QE may finally create inflation by provoking a loss of fiscal control.  Central banks have risked just that by encouraging yet another speculative bubble, heavy issuance of low-grade debt, and the diversion of savings toward unproductive investment. The inevitable fiscal consequences are likely to include bailouts, income-replacement and transfer payment programs as the third bubble since 2000 collapses.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160314.htm

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Italy bank runs: the ‘Northern Rock’ signal of global financial meltdown?

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“On Jan. 21, the oldest surviving bank in the world, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, reported that depositors have been initiating a series of bank runs which have put the financial institution on the precipice of collapse, with all attempts to calm account holders having so far failed.  Since last Monday the share price of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA has fallen over 46%.  Back in 2007, bank runs on the British financial institution known as Northern Rock ushered in the start of the global financial crisis that culminated in a collapse that would require taxpayer bailouts, and tens of trillions in central bank liquidity.”

http://www.examiner.com/article/italy-bank-runs-could-be-the-northern-rock-signal-of-global-financial-meltdown

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Oil and the ISIS: Another US-NATO War on Libya is Imminent

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“Despite Libyan officials rejecting a US-led bombing campaign and/or ground operation, reports indicate plans to deploy about 1,000 UK special forces on the pretext of combating ISIS – to be joined by thousands more American, French and Italian combat troops.  On Monday, Britain’s Daily Mirror headlined ‘SAS (special forces) spearhead coalition offensive to halt Islamic State oil snatches in Libya,’ saying: ‘The (pretext) is to halt the advance of 5,000 (ISIS) extremists who have seized more than a dozen major oil fields, boosting their war coffers’ – aiming to capture ‘Libya’s prize oil refinery at Marsa al Brega,’ North Africa’s largest, located between Sirte and Benghazi.”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/western-war-on-libya-imminent/5499465

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Chris Hedges, The American Empire: Murder Inc.

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“‘In Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, it’s reached the point of political and social breakdown,’ Nairn said. ‘There’s no stopping it. It’s out of control. There are not two sides. It [has fractured into] many sides. It’s analogous to what happened in Cambodia, with the massive U.S. bombing of Cambodia, which paved the way for the rise of the Khmer Rouge. [It has destroyed] any semblance of normal politics or even society. In that kind of environment the most evil, the most violent, have a better chance to rise and prevail.’  Ceaseless war and indiscriminant killing define the U.S. imperial power. But this policy, he said, has backfired.”

http://www.truthdig.com/report/print/the_american_empire_murder_inc_20160103

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A Special Relationship: The U.S. is teaming up with Al Qaeda, again

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“The Saudis, of course, had been an integral part of the anti-Soviet campaign from the beginning. According to one former CIA official closely involved in the Afghanistan operation, Saudi Arabia supplied 40 percent of the budget for the rebels.  Al Qaeda, employing a largely Saudi suicide squad, destroyed the World Trade Center. In a sane world, this disaster might have permanently ended Washington’s long-standing taste for mixing Islam with politics. But old habits die hard.”

http://harpers.org/archive/2016/01/a-special-relationship/?single=1

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