Tag Archives: History Repeating

John Hussman: Durable Returns, Transient Returns

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“Once extreme valuations have been established, further market gains have always been transient. Once market internals deteriorate, it’s a signal that investors have shifted from risk-seeking to risk-aversion. At that point, there is no specific event that must be known in advance. One need only have an appreciation for the inevitable swing of the pendulum from extreme euphoria to extreme fear that has characterized the financial markets for centuries. The ‘catalyst’ is rarely appreciated as a catalyst until after severe market losses have already occurred, and in many cases, that catalyst is simply an event that concentrated selling plans that were already being contemplated. It’s always something.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150629.htm

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John Hussman: All Their Eggs in Janet’s Basket

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“Investors whose strategy is to follow the Fed – in the belief that stocks will advance as long as the Fed does not raise interest rates – are free to place all their eggs in Janet’s basket. On the other hand, for investors whose strategy is historically informed by factors that have reliably distinguished market advances from collapses over a century of history, our suggestion is to consider a stronger defense. Our greatest successes have been when our investment outlook was aligned with valuations and market internals, and our greatest disappointments have been when it was not. Both factors are unfavorable at present, and our outlook is aligned accordingly.”

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150622.htm

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You’re a Criminal in a Mass Surveillance World – How to Not Get Caught

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“To apologists of mass surveillance, what did Anne Frank have to hide? I ask because the person credited with popularizing the nothing-to-hide argument is none other than Joseph Goebbels, Minister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda for the Third Reich.  Minister Goebbels would have wrung his hands with delight at having this depth of data on his regime’s citizens. But this data is absolutely trivial compared to what the U.S. government actually knows about you. Thanks to William Binney and Edward Snowden, we know that the U.S. regime has for many years been secretly constructing the means to monitor and record every aspect of our lives.”

https://bananas.liberty.me/youre-a-criminal-in-a-mass-surveillance-world-how-to-not-get-caught/

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Jacob Hornberger, Rand Paul: A Profile in Courage

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“The U.S. Freedom Act is the reform of the Patriot Act that Obama, Clapper, and other warfare statists wanted. But Rand Paul would have no part of it. Let the Patriot Act expire — without reform — was his position.  The Patriot Act and the U.S. Freedom Act are two of the most anti-American schemes in U.S. history. Both schemes would fit in perfectly in any totalitarian regime. Moreover, employing fearmongering is a time-honored strategy of totalitarian regimes to scare people into trading away their freedom for the pretense of security.  Fear has been the coin of the realm of the U.S. national-security state apparatus since the day it was grafted onto America’s governmental system after World War II.”

http://fff.org/2015/06/01/rand-paul-profile-courage/

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HSBC economist: “There aren’t enough lifeboats to go around”

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“HSBC economist Stephen King yesterday published a weighty analysis titled ‘the world economy’s titanic problem’ that pointed out that it has been six years since the trough of the last US recession.  ‘If history is any guide, we are probably now closer to the next one,’ he said. Business cycles always turn, and after six years of growth, even at a pedestrian rate, the current recovery is old.  King’s point – which explains the Titanic reference – is that policymakers are out of lifeboats if a recession were to arrive. The US Fed has dealt with past recessions by cutting interest rates by at least five percentage points. That is obviously impossible today because rates are still on the floor.”

http://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2015/may/13/us-economy-is-signalling-an-iceberg-were-out-of-lifeboats

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This Is How Insane San Francisco’s Housing Bubble Really Is

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“Over the course of three years and four months, the median home price about doubled to $1,225,000.  The median home price is now 37% above the prior-bubble completely mind-boggling median price that afterwards everyone admitted had been based on totally crazy valuations.  This has a real impact on rents, with average asking rent in the first quarter hitting $3,458 a month, or $41,500 per year.  The median house prices range from $610,000 in Bayview, one of the more troubled neighborhoods, to nearly $6 million in Pacific Heights.”

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/05/19/how-over-the-top-crazy-san-franciscos-home-price-and-construction-boom-really-is/

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Rome: Money, Mischief and Minted Crises

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“In a period of about 370 years, the denarius and its successors were debased incrementally from 98 percent to less than one percent silver. The massive spending of the welfare/warfare state exacted a terrible toll in the name of either ‘helping’ Romans or making war on non-Romans. Financial and military crises mixed with poor leadership, expediency, and a clear misunderstanding of economic principles led to the destruction Rome’s monetary system.  Honest and transparent policies could have saved the Romans from centuries of economic hardships. The question future historians will answer is, ‘What did the Americans learn from the Roman experience?'”

http://fee.org/anythingpeaceful/detail/rome-money-mischief-and-minted-crises

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Jacob Hornberger: U.S. Soldiers Died for Empire and Hegemony

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“For obvious reasons, U.S. officials, as well as many of the family members of the deceased, can’t bring themselves to admit that and so they settle for just mindlessly repeating the mantra, ‘They died defending our country,’  Consider the Spanish American War in 1898. Did Spain ever attack and invade the United States? Nope. The U.S. government intervened in a war of independence that was being waged between the Spanish Empire and its colonial possessions, including Cuba and the Philippines. Thus, U.S. soldiers clearly didn’t die in the defense of our country in that war.”

http://fff.org/2015/05/25/u-s-soldiers-died-empire-hegemony/

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‘High likelihood’ of Greek capital controls, bank deposit freeze: Moody’s

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“Moody’s Investor Service downgraded its outlook for the Greek banking system to negative from stable, which it said reflected: ‘the significant deterioration in banks’ funding and liquidity since December 2014, with deposit outflows estimated at more than 30 billion euros ($33.3 billion), or 18 percent of total deposits, over the past five months.’  These pressures are unlikely to ease over the next 12-18 months, Moody’s said, ‘and there is a high likelihood that capital controls and a deposit freeze will be imposed.’  The credit ratings agency said the negative outlook also took into account the downward revision of Moody’s 2015-16 GDP (gross domestic product) forecasts for the country.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102693901

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Thousands of pro-govt protesters rally for Macedonian PM

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“Tens of thousands of demonstrators came together to show their support for Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski on Monday. The rally follows mass anti-government protests, whose opponents claim are being funded and instigated from abroad. If Gruevski does not resign, ‘Macedonia will face a war, just like Ukraine,’ Opposition Social Democrat leader Zoran Zaev threatened over the weekend, as quoted by RIA Novosti. Back in February, Zaev released illegally gathered wiretaps which allegedly exposed the government in breaking democratic rules. The prime minister refuted the allegations, saying the tapes had been doctored.”

http://rt.com/news/259849-macedonia-pro-government-rally/

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