Stocks: The Road Ahead

“What’s going to happen to the stock market in the near term? The market is likely to continue rising until ‘something’ gives, either higher interest rates or lower corporate profits. That ‘something’ may be unknown but it will be a negative event, whatever it turns out to be. So, risk is high and warning signs are flashing:  1. Stock trading volume is ‘dead.’ Almost nobody is buying and sellers have their hands on the sell button but waiting for a trigger.  2.  The largest buyers of stocks are the corporations themselves, which have a notoriously bad record of buying at market tops. The smart money (hedge funds, corporate insiders, and institutional investors) are currently net sellers. […]”

http://www.investingdaily.com/20998/why-small-caps-make-sense-for-retirees/

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BusinessWeek: The Death of Equities [1979]

“The huge declines in U.S. stocks in recent months have revived interest in a BusinessWeek cover story from August 1979 entitled ‘The Death of Equities.’ At the time the story was written, the stock market had sustained serious losses and the long-term health of the U.S. economy was a significant concern.  Few, if any, market forecasters were willing to call a recovery at the time, and the story provides a telling look at how inflation had ravaged the market landscape—and investor psychology—at the close of the 1970s. So step back in time with us and read BW’s take on the state of the market in August 1979.”

http://www.businessweek.com/stories/1979-08-13/the-death-of-equitiesbusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice

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Warren Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor [1977]

“Every Sunday, Fortune publishes a favorite story from our archive. As controversy swirls around whether Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is downplaying inflation predictions, we turn back to May 1977 for timely advice from Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha has clashed with Bernanke over inflation time and time again, and here Buffett warns how rising prices can hamper growth ‘not because the market falls, but in spite of the fact that the market rises.'”

http://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/

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Bill Bonner: Three Signs That Never Fail to Predict a Bear Market

“Too much money (or credit) raises prices, lowers yields, forces investors into subprime investments, increases debt and dooms markets to disaster.   As ultra-low rates continue, milestones are hit. In 1946, the Union Pacific Railroad was able to borrow at 2.51% – a record low at the time. But it was a solid business. Today’s credit-financed lending bubble finds borrowers with neither tracks nor trains.  Rwanda recently borrowed $400 million – an amount equal to 5% of GDP –at less than 7% interest.  [LendingClub also has a] great business model, no? You get money from people who are desperate for yield… you lend it to people who are desperate for cash… and you take your fees off the top.”

http://bonnerandpartners.com/three-signs-that-never-fail-to-predict-a-bear-market/

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Moody’s, Goldman, feds fight the last war on financial excess

“During the current five-year surge in stocks, confidence that a crash isn’t likely has remained below 40% among individual investors. During the comparable span of 2004 to early 2007, confidence was never as low as 40%, and peaked near 50%. ‘Twice bitten, thrice shy’ seems to be the prevailing attitude, after the market was cut in half twice in eight years’ time. This persistent mood of suspicion probably creates its own check against too much giddiness infusing the markets too quickly. But it doesn’t provide much protection against a whole new, unexpected financial bug coming to bite us from a place we haven’t thought to look.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/moody-s–goldman–feds-fight-the-last-war-on-financial-excess–are-we-safer-181328063.html

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How to Handle the Coming Bond Market Bust

“One of the many consequences of the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates is that US corporations have gorged on credit.  In 2007, at the peak of the last credit bubble, US non-financial corporations had $7.2 trillion in outstanding debt. Today, they owe $9.6 trillion.  The Fed has built up a huge conflict of interest in its own policy making.  If it raises interest rates, it will depress the value of its balance sheet (which is now stuffed full of interest-rate-sensitive long bonds). But if the Fed backs off raising rates, for fear of the effect on bloated credit and stock markets, it risks losing all credibility… especially if the rate of consumer price inflation continues to rise.”

http://bonnerandpartners.com/how-to-handle-the-coming-bond-market-bust/

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What Happens When Share Buybacks Dry Up?

“Ultra-low rates cause investors to pile into increasingly poor investment choices – overvalued stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.  But ultra-low rates have other, more subtle, effects, too…  As we’ve been reporting, it also makes it extremely easy for corporations to borrow. And as the chart below shows, they’ve been borrowing like crazy recently.  What have they been doing with all this money?  One major source of spending has been share buybacks.  Over the past four years, share buybacks have totaled between $75 billion and $159 billion a quarter.  And in the first quarter of this year they reached a high exceeded only by a couple of quarters in 2007.”

http://bonnerandpartners.com/what-happens-when-share-buybacks-dry-up/

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India central bank chief warns of another market crash

“‘True, it (another financial sector crisis) may not happen if we can find a way to unwind everything steadily,’ Rajan, who is famed for predicting the 2008 markets crash years in advance, said in the interview posted late Wednesday on the journal’s website.  ‘But it is a big hope and prayer,’ said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, adding there is a risk of sudden price reversals and sharp spikes in financial volatility.  ‘We are back to the 1930s, in a world of ‘competitive easing’,’, Rajan said, referring to ultra-low interest rate policies pursued by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England in a bid to stimulate their economies and spur growth.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-central-bank-chief-warns-another-market-crash-190447924–finance.html

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Sotheby’s? The best indicator you’ve never heard of

“Need proof of a speculative bubble?  Closely watched hedge fund manager Jim Chanos says he has the best barometer for gauging where 1 percenters are putting their money, given the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies that have been fueling their portfolios to record highs. During an interview Thursday on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box,’ he pointed to the stock chart of Sotheby’s.  ‘That’s what people are buying,’ Chanos said.  The chart shows that shares of Sotheby’s have peaked before every major financial bubble since 1987, starting with the leveraged-buyout spree that fueled the stock market before the Black Monday crash that year.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101551679

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JPMorgan Joins Goldman in Designing Derivatives for a New Generation

“Derivatives that helped inflate the 2007 credit bubble are being remade for a new generation.  JPMorgan Chase & Co. is offering a swap contract tied to a speculative-grade loan index that makes it easier for investors to wager on the debt. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is planning as much as 10 billion euros ($13.4 billion) of structured investments that bundle debt into top-rated securities, while ProShares last week started offering exchange-traded funds backed by credit-default swaps on company debt.  The instruments are springing back to life as investors seek new ways to boost returns that are being suppressed by central bank stimulus.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/swaps-reincarnate-boosting-debt-bets-in-new-era-credit-markets.html

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