Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years

“Federal Reserve officials, concerned that selling bonds from their $4.3 trillion portfolio could crush the U.S. recovery, are preparing to keep their balance sheet close to record levels for years.  Central bankers are stepping back from a three-year-old strategy for an exit from the unprecedented easing they deployed to battle the worst recession since the Great Depression. The Fed is testing new tools that would allow it to keep a large balance sheet even after it raises short-term interest rates, a step policy makers anticipate taking next year. They would use these tools to drain excess reserves temporarily from the banking system.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-06-11/fed-prepares-to-keep-super-sized-balance-sheet-for-years-to-come

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New York Fed Massively Disagrees With DOE’s Student Loan Default Data

“How high those delinquencies rates actually are, though, is an open question, which is turning into confusion on how to fix the problem.   The most dire assessment is that one in three borrowers trying to repay student loans was late by 90 days or more at the end of 2012, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in April.  The U.S. Department of Education only publishes default statistics, and the official number of borrowers who default within two years of entering repayment is currently 10 percent. The default rate after three years is 14.7 percent.  The default rates have been widely criticized for not giving an accurate picture of the number of student loan borrowers in distress.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/02/us-column-weston-idUSKBN0ED1GW20140602

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Lew Rockwell: Speaking Truth to Monetary Power

“We have every reason to expect governments to exploit their positions as monopolists of the production of money in ways that increase their power and benefit favored constituencies. We do not need ‘monetary policy’ any more than we need a paintbrush policy, a baseball bat policy, or an automobile policy. We do not need a monopoly institution to create money for us. Money, like any good, is better produced on the market within the nexus of economic calculation. Money creation by government or its privileged central bank yields us business cycles, monetary debasement, and an increase in the power of government.”

http://www.thedailybell.com/editorials/35335/Llewellyn-H-Rockwell-Jr-Speaking-Truth-to-Monetary-Power/

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Hawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

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“The Fed’s monetary expansion ended in 1929. The 1950s equity rise ended with a bust in the early 1960s. The Nifty Fifty fad ended with the Crash of 1969. The market recovery of the 1970s ended in 1982. The next crash was in 1987. In 1994, an expansion gave way to a recession. A great tech expansion turned sour in 2001. A housing bubble deflated violently in 2008, not just in the US but around the world. And that is where we are now. This expansion has been driven relentlessly upward for some five-plus years. Another year or two and this latest ‘Wall Street Party’ will be finished. We anticipate a downturn that will be as violent or even more so than 2008.”

http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/35332/Hawks-Take-Flight-Why-the-Feds-Hypocritical-Dialectic-Continues/

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The Successor to Keynes

“The words, ‘Brilliant!’ ‘Ground-breaking!’ and ‘Visionary!’  will no doubt be seen in many reviews of Mr. Piketty’s book.  He recommends: Uniform global taxation; Confiscatory tax on inherited wealth; 15% tax on capital; 80% tax on annual incomes over US$500,000; Enforced transparency on all bank transactions; Overt use of inflation to redistribute wealth downwards.  Why didn’t anyone else think of this brilliant plan?  Well actually, they did. In fact, the above is essentially the shopping list of the IMF, the EU, the OECD and, in fact, many of the governments that make up what was formerly described as ‘the free world.'”

http://www.internationalman.com/articles/the-successor-to-keynes

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Bank of Israel’s Fischer, Treasury’s Brainard to push for more activist Fed

“The arrival of former Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer and former U.S. Treasury official Lael Brainard will add two strong voices to back Chair Janet Yellen’s view that loose monetary policy needs to be extended to turn around a slack labor market.  Fischer intervened directly in Israel’s mortgage market to tackle a real estate bubble, while Brainard pushed EU governments hard for more aggressive action from the European Central Bank during the euro zone crisis.  Interviews with former colleagues and a review of their public statements also suggest both will want the Fed to remain in activist mode long after its current programs wind down and its bloated balance sheet shrinks.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fischer-brainard-push-more-activist-051333390.html

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Yellen tells graduates: Show grit like Ben Bernanke

“Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday delivered what you’d expect from a commencement speech: graduates, she said, should ‘tend the fires of curiosity,’ listen to others, and show grit in the face of failure. Yellen reminded New York University students in Yankee Stadium that even Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio failed most of the time they stepped to the plate, according to a text of her remarks.  And what example did Yellen find for such an inspirational beacon of bravery?  Why, her predecessor, Ben Bernanke.”

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/05/21/yellen-tells-graduates-show-grit-like-bernanke/

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Wholesale Prices in U.S. Climb by Most in a Year; Food Prices Surge

“The 0.6 percent increase in the producer price index was the biggest since September 2012 and exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, figures from the Labor Department showed today. Over the past 12 months, costs climbed 2.1 percent. Food prices surged by the most in three years.  Wholesale food expenses increased 2.7 percent in April, the biggest jump since February 2011, led by an 8.4 percent surge in the costs of meats that was the biggest since 2003. A confluence of events ranging from drought in the West to porcine epidemic diarrhea is pushing up prices for beef, pork and other foods.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-increase-by-most-in-more-than-a-year.html

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Yellen Concerned Fed Models Fail to Predict Price Moves

“Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is concerned that the standard models central banks use to forecast inflation may be broken.  Behind her disquiet: the failure of the models to foresee the path of prices in the U.S. during the last recession and its aftermath and in Japan during its deflationary period from 1998 to 2012. U.S. inflation has been higher than the simulations suggested, while Japanese price declines proved more persistent.  Yellen alluded to her concerns in a speech last week, saying the Fed has to ‘watch carefully’ to see if inflation picks up as the central bank projects — and hopes — during the next few years.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/yellen-concerned-fed-model-fails-to-predict-price-moves.html

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Climate Change and Captain Kirk

“Of course, we aren’t seriously proposing government subsidies on the grounds that CO2 emissions confer ‘social benefits’ that aren’t being fully internalized by the emitters. The point is that even taking the Administration’s case on its own terms, it’s not even clear that CO2 emissions are a bad thing. And to repeat, we’re running 2 of the 3 computer models that the Obama Administration team used to come up with these figures for federal agencies. Last point: You might wonder why they (and I) didn’t try peeking under the hood of the third model, the so-called PAGE model. The answer is that it’s proprietary, and the creator (Chris Hope) doesn’t make the code publicly available.”

http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2014/04/climate-change-and-captain-kirk.html

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